We from Afghanistan want good relations based on mutual respect with our neighbors. In case of Pakistan that could not be materialized because of our dispute over Pashtunkhwa. Unless that puzzle is solved, Pakistan will remain defenseless, volatile and hostile to Afghanistan.
The coming election in Pakistan is crucial, because of Pakistan's interdependence shift from West to China. This shift is affecting relations with India, Afghanistan and the West. Therefore it is important to know whom's winning may bring stability to Pakistan and naturalize relations with neighbors, while whom's winning can escalate further conflicts and destabilization in Pakistan and the region.
The civilian politics in Pakistan are vested in Sindh based Pakistan People Party (PPP) and the Punjab based Muslim League (ML), other parties and those specially in Pashtunkhwa and Baluchistan are acting like kingmakers, but the real kingmaker is Pakistan Army, in fact Pakistan army has a country that is called Pakistan.
Punjab, the most densely populated province about 600 person per Sq. Km, almost triple density from other parts of Pakistan is contribute about 57% of Pakistanis GDP and nearly 70% of Pakistan Army men are Punjabies, because they are poor and over populated. In fact the Pakistan army is Punjabi Army that takes care of the interests of Punjab. The Pakistan Army is involved in every aspect of Pakistan through their corrupt and bloodsucking enterprises and even have a compulsory placement of retired army officers in most business in Pakistan. The army base is in Punjab and that is contributing a lot to the prosperity and productivity of Punjab by stealing energy and natural resources of the other federating units. Therefore, since the ML base is Punjab, therefore, ML is greatly controlled by the Army, that means ML government is a de facto army government and everyone knows what is the Job of armies.
The civilian power is shifted to PPP only when Pakistan army commits enough atrocities in other federating units and people of Paksitan are fed-up of the army's dictatorship. Historically, in such situations PPP gets the chance to power, but the Pakistan army will make the civilian government so ugly that people will be calling for the rescue of Army again and that history is repeating in Pakistan again and again. Now the situation is same again that PPP may win the July 2018 election because Army needs to clean their dirty hands and for that reason, Army can not bring ML to power, PTI means another face of the Army, so they are also out of the rat race.
Therefore, PPP winning the election is a must provided they pay attention to their leadership and bring veteran PPP member back on board. The civilian government of PPP may bring stability to Pakistan and naturalize relation with neighbors, but that can only be achieved if the populist party bring drastic reforms to enterprises of the Army and finish its bureaucracy by privatizing the army enterprises that will relieve the besieged people of Pakistan and free their economy from the menace of the Army.
This will be that last chance of India, Afghanistan and the West to save Pakistan from becoming the dragon of China like North Korea.
Noor Rahman Liwal
An Afghan philanthropist, entrepreneur, owner of multi-national companies, Pashto TV and Afghanistan Presidential Nominee 2014. Lived and worked with Mujahideen parties, United Nations Agencies, NGOs and ran business as refugee in Quetta and Peshawar for 25 years. Was the first to enable computer for Urdu languages in the 1990, the then Pakistan minister of technology offered him high ranking job and Pakistani nationality which he refused.